Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 28 May 2026, 11:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 28 May 2026, 03:47 UTC · context given to the AI

Prob one more bounce before we tag 71.5k

$BTC 4H bullish harami with hammer candle, entire candle below lower BB look likely for 4H EMA 8 test https://t.co/ZU9fMRNUAd https://t.co/6wEi5xz0c4

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $73,376 at 28 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $72,783 at 28 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 72782.76 / 73375.62 − 1 = -0.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC 4H bullish harami with hammer candle, entire candle below lower BB”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3