Prediction evidence

In reply to · 27 May 2026, 15:56 UTC · context given to the AI

Market Outlook Been a while since I made one of these Macro: Core macro thesis Q2 - bullish(Q2 trend ending now/soon) Q3- bid dries up in risk assets; strong assets build out consolidation ranges, weaker assets pullback; I think BTC pulls back into 60s Q4 - Fake out off open into strong uptrend BTC pulls back June - August; Consolidates & compresses into September; Head fakes & rips Oct into Dec Will have to make adjustments if Q4 isn't bullish Medium Term: Trend since the start of April shows clear signs of momentum loss; price feels heavy If we see price trade up into 82-84k zone it's a clear hedge or swing short zone If price accepts over 84k we could see 100k+ but I consider this very unlikely If we see price trade down & consolidate between 74-71k expect 60s to come shortly after Closing Thoughts: This bear phase has crushed most everyone's optimistic view on the future; if you weren't long equites you have massively underperformed; But don't forget BTC is the most reflexive asset in the world, "All is takes is one green candle for everyone to believe again" BTC is the largest holdings in my port with Equities as a close second The ability to adapt is essential in markets & many crypto participants are stuck in their old ways waiting for 2018 or 2021 style alt runs; I don't see this coming anytime soon I feel pretty confidently BTC will have a strong wave of out performance later this year or next Goal moving forward is to defend drawdown in Q3 & then be set to print in Q4 If you enjoyed this post & want me to keep sharing press like/rt(No sponsor, writing purely for my love of CT) Godspeed friends