Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 May 2026, 15:04 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Killa

@KillaXBT

Quoting · 27 May 2026, 14:25 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 32% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year 4% chance it happens next month https://t.co/Ef4C2weign

$BTC Good luck with that. 32% of people seem to believe we’re going to flip the STH cost basis and break every previous cycle pattern. I’d rather bet with history than against it. https://t.co/x1Q0IYua9c https://t.co/N5tZygboRt

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,188 at 27 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $72,783 at 28 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 72782.76 / 75187.96 − 1 = -3.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: correct

Prediction evidence

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