Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 May 2026, 15:59 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 26 May 2026, 14:25 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC 4H inching towards local range peak https://t.co/3mqcofBakj

$BTC 4H outside bar with monster volume, closing near candle lows https://t.co/AQvzTmn7T7 https://t.co/hntQuLJWuX

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,398 at 26 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $75,921 at 26 May 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 75921 / 76397.68 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC 4H outside bar with monster volume, closing near candle lows https://t.co/AQvzTmn7T7 https://t.co/hntQuLJWuX”
Confidence: 88%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3