Prediction evidence

In reply to · 25 May 2026, 22:23 UTC · context given to the AI

I think there is a higher probability odds than prior times that the 4 year cycle does not play out the same as compared to previous times (which involved a lower-low around month 47 or 48) There have been dozens of bottom signals that flashed in Q1 2026 in synchrony that flashed at the lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022 together when the 4 year cycle low took place These signals did not flash in the middle part of the bear market price action during the prior cycles as being compared to (around the test of the 200 Daily SMA mentioned) - they were present at the bottom & not in the middle on test of 200 SMA. The countertrend rally also has lasted 89 days so far from low to high which is abnormal for a bear market rally. An 89 day rally has only taken place in a bull market rally. Another issue is the timings of the weekly cycles. In the past the weekly cycles were approximately 24 weeks long (6 months) and there would be 8 of them within the four year cycle. This cycle the weekly cycles have been 31-32 weeks long and the next weekly cycle low falls at the end of June/early July so it falls on month 44 which is in 10% range of when the 4 year cycle low would be due so its entirely possible the low is aligned with the next weekly cycle low - with that said whether it happens in June/July or October is not overall that important but could be a slight curveball. The last cycle low came in late on Month 46 so a cycle low on month 43 or 44 would not be to crazy IMO Lastly a cycle low does not have to be a lower low. Often with the daily/weekly cycles you see higher lows. This hasn't been seen with BTC for its 4 year cycle but there have only been 3 data points so based on the data above and given BTC has broken has broken high time frame resistance on the monthly (above 74.4k) it increases the odds of a higher low as prior times when high time frame resistance was broken it meant the bottom was in and the low was not retested after Also just an interesting data point; the searches for "4 year cycle" went vertical in Q1 2026 on trends so it has become very popular unlike prior times We will see, I do believe the odds of a cycle low on month 44 are higher because of the weekly cycles not aligning here. Also the odds of a higher-low to mark the 4 year cycle low are also higher given the price structure on this rally and the signals that flashed in Q1