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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 25 May 2026, 09:56 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC has now formed a new CME gap at the $76,000 level. There are 2 CME gaps to the upside at $79,200 and $84,100. While there is one more CME gap to the downside at $67,200. IMO, Bitcoin will fill the close ones this week and will then look for a lower one. https://t.co/dvnVUUSHOw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,517 at 25 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $72,795 at 1 Jun 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 72795.45 / 77517.01 − 1 = -6.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +6.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “$BTC has now formed a new CME gap at the $76,000 level.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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