Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 May 2026, 12:08 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:33 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

Quoting · 23 May 2026, 19:53 UTC · context given to the AI

Daily is working on bullish pinbar, will update at close

$BTC daily puts in piercing pattern, with spring from 76k on daily. Working on EMA 8 now https://t.co/XuN9hYj58e https://t.co/yVnAvE4RHR

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,014 at 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,282 at 25 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77281.55 / 77013.65 − 1 = +0.3%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC daily puts in piercing pattern, with spring from 76k on daily.”
Confidence: 88%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3