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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 May 2026, 17:55 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC monthly candle looks horrible now. Still has one week to close, but if it closes in red, things could get ugly. https://t.co/DlBhO2xNGl

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,400 at 23 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $73,911 at 30 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 73910.79 / 75399.73 − 1 = -2.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time