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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 May 2026, 19:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

Quoting · 18 May 2026, 14:27 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC relief rally looks to have run its course. I'm still targeting mid $40k on this next leg, but don't rule out $30k over the next 6-12 months. #Bitcoin https://t.co/uiYKSEax2q

Next stop for $BTC is probably $71-$72k. If that fails (likely), $60k is next, followed by the mid-$40k range. https://t.co/aKjWQf4y5v

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,769 at 22 May 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,888 at 23 May 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 75887.6 / 75769.45 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Next stop for $BTC is probably $71-$72k.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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