Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,342 at 22 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $74,710 at 23 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
3. r = 74710.31 / 77342.06 − 1 = -3.4%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology