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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 May 2026, 09:05 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC is still holding above the $75,000-$76,000 support zone. As long as this holds, I'm expecting a rally towards $79,500-$80,000. https://t.co/k8g2E5WAHv

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,214 at 22 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $74,576 at 23 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 74575.98 / 77213.98 − 1 = -3.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC is still holding above the $75,000-$76,000 support zone.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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