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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Bitcoin just printed the same bull trap. Again. January: trap at $99K flush to $58K. May: trap at $82K flush incoming. Same structure. Same setup. Same outcome coming. My buy zone: $54-56K. https://t.co/bmY56GnohX

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,110 at 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,863 at 22 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 76863.01 / 77110.26 − 1 = -0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin just printed the same bull trap.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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