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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 May 2026, 14:45 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

This doesn't look good for $ETH. Ethereum needs to hold above the $2,100 level, or things could get ugly. https://t.co/xfo9dPuqoL

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,120 at 21 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,114 at 22 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 2114.22 / 2120.04 − 1 = -0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time