Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 May 2026, 11:36 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC

Ignas

@DefiIgnas

In reply to · 21 May 2026, 11:31 UTC · context given to the AI

@DefiIgnas I just texted someone very similar thoughts 🫤

@laurashin Contrarian ETH might even be a good trade :)

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,113 at 21 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,128 at 22 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 2128.49 / 2112.86 − 1 = +0.7%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time