Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,111 at 21 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $77,175 at 21 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 77175.4 / 77111.1 − 1 = +0.1%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology