Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 May 2026, 10:12 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:25 UTC

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

kind of funny that we're all euphoric right now but it's going to be really sad if btc ruins the fun and grinds down to the lower 70ks...hope it doesn't happen

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,114 at 21 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,225 at 22 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 77224.67 / 77113.62 − 1 = +0.14%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.14% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “kind of funny that we're all euphoric right now but it's going to be really sad if btc ruins the fun and grinds down to the lower 70ks...hope it doesn't happen”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

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