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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 May 2026, 03:02 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Benjamin Cowen

@benjamincowen

Ethereum is likely heading to its lower logarithmic regression trend line, which roughly aligns with the April 2025 lows. https://t.co/a7oXEEOjx5

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,144 at 21 May 2026, 04:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,136 at 22 May 2026, 04:00 UTC.
r = 2136.06 / 2143.92 − 1 = -0.4%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Ethereum is likely heading to its lower logarithmic regression trend line, which roughly aligns with the April 2025 lows.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3