Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 20 May 2026, 14:29 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

exitpump

@exitpumpBTC

Quoting · 20 May 2026, 14:16 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 40% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year 8% chance it happens next month https://t.co/oeD5QfHcGb

$BTC Honestly, can't get bullish and expect higher prices for now while there is heavy spot selling (Coinbase discount) and chasing asks on Binance perps unless something changes. Waiting for 75K and 73.5K levels to look for confident longs again. https://t.co/JriiQzXwp5 https://t.co/YtvP0xZwHD

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,362 at 20 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,892 at 21 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 76891.99 / 77362.34 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC Honestly, can't get bullish and expect higher prices for now while there is heavy spot selling (Coinbase discount) and chasing asks on Binance perps unless something changes.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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