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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @CryptoGodJohn / 2056752150252765323:memecoin:$MAGA

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 May 2026, 15:01 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Cr

John

@CryptoGodJohn

Bitcoin weak but $MAGA & $MANIFEST looking strong When market bounces I expect them to be top performers

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $MAGA price at or after publication, $0.009094 at 19 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.008238 at 20 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 0.00823811354854033 / 0.00909395831577162 − 1 = -9.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -9.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $MAGA ($MAGA)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin weak but $MAGA & $MANIFEST looking strong”
Confidence: 87%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$0.009094

Evaluation price

$0.008238

Move

-9.4%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

geckoterminal

Evaluated at

11 Nov 2026, 03:15 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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