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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 18 May 2026, 15:10 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Justin Bennett

@JustinBennettFX

Remember how I said throughout 2025 that $ETH would likely revisit sub $1k prices, possibly even $500 or lower? YTD PA has only supported that view.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,106 at 18 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,109 at 19 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 2108.5 / 2106 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Remember how I said throughout 2025 that $ETH would likely revisit sub $1k prices, possibly even $500 or lower?”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3