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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 May 2026, 21:48 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

$BTC Still not terrible... held between the EMAs right now... if it breaks those EMAs though it's toast and testing 65k IMO https://t.co/QgRIa1yJQ7

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,356 at 17 May 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,043 at 18 May 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 77043.32 / 78356.06 − 1 = -1.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time