Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 May 2026, 11:29 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Chase

@Crypto_Chase

In reply to · 17 May 2026, 11:23 UTC · context given to the AI

Stock market ATH Meanwhile $BTC still down -40% What happens when equities pull back

@follis_ Wouldn't be surprised if BTC dumps a bit, but then just keeps chopping rather than giving a buying opportunity. Lack of interest from investors so it doesn't go up AND lack of interest from traders so we don't get good flushes / liquidation cascades anymore. Brutal

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,382 at 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,239 at 18 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 77238.52 / 78382 − 1 = -1.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@follis_ Wouldn't be surprised if BTC dumps a bit, but then just keeps chopping rather than giving a buying opportunity.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction