Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,431 at 17 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,722 at 18 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
3. r = 76722.34 / 78431.35 − 1 = -2.2%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology