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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 17 May 2026, 06:01 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC

swarmik

@swarmister

$BTC locally (1h) We've reached the POC at 78k, and I'm seeing this on lower timeframes, so an upward move is possible https://t.co/BmM2oN0Vvz

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,078 at 17 May 2026, 07:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 1 hour horizon, $78,152 at 17 May 2026, 08:00 UTC.
r = 78151.91 / 78077.58 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time