Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,092 at 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,015 at 17 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 78014.75 / 78091.58 − 1 = -0.1%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology