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Leaderboard / @AltcoinSherpa / 2055661158317588496:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 16 May 2026, 14:46 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:25 UTC

Al

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

$BTC 200 ema on the 4h is right here...usually a good bounce spot at a minimum. But I think bitcoin ultimately trades in the lower 70ks imo. https://t.co/xqV656PYb7

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,092 at 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,015 at 17 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 78014.75 / 78091.58 − 1 = -0.10%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.10% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC 200 ema on the 4h is right here...usually a good bounce spot at a minimum.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$78,092

Evaluation price

$78,015

Move

-0.10%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

22 Oct 2026, 02:17 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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