Published 16 May 2026, 11:26 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC
Ivan on Tech 🍳 Founder @ Bullmania
@IvanOnTech
Quoting · 16 May 2026, 08:19 UTC · context given to the AI
I have to be honest.... After all the positive news this week with the Clarity Act mark up being approved, Strive announcing that $SATA is paying daily dividends, $STRC producing enough volume to buy at least 10,000 BTC PLUS $MSTR settling $1.5B of their convertible debt, I expected to see a better reaction to Bitcoin than being DOWN 4% in the last 5 days. It literally makes no sense. Like, how did we reach $126k when there wasn't half the bullish news there is today? I understand there were mass OG sellers last year. I understand Jane Street was manipulating the price for months. I also understand there's a war in Iran. What I dont understand is how a company like Intel is up 700% since the US government put a few quid into it and SpaceX is preparing to IPO at a higher valuation than the entire Bitcoin network, yet Bitcoin, as a global monetary asset that's having billions of inflows, is still 40% off it's all time high and 10% down YTD? Even Nvidia, who has a $5.4T market cap, almost 3.5x Bitcoins market cap, has moved 20%+ higher in 2026 despite all the macro-economic challenges. I don't know what it is - I said last year that someone was manipulating the price & it turned out to be Jane Street. It still feels off. It'll come out eventually. I don't know why, but Bitcoin should be FAR higher than it is right now. It will revert at some point. I'm convinced of it. Until then, I'll continue to be perplexed by the price action but grateful I'm able to keep stacking at these lower levels. 🧡Answer is simple - we are in bear market since October Bullish news don’t pump the market in the bear just like bad news don’t dump the market in a bull Bitcoin is still in a very strong bear trend in the weekly timeframe with lower highs and lower lows… Until a high volume capitulation candle takes place AND trend reverses forget any news pumping isView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 78382 / 78047.68 − 1 = +0.4%d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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