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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 16 May 2026, 10:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC tapped the $78,000 level today. Global markets are looking weak here, which isn't a good sign. If BTC loses the $78,000 level here, it could drop quickly to $74,000-$75,000. https://t.co/FL1jImDqkn

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,932 at 16 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,431 at 17 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 78431.35 / 77931.76 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC tapped the $78,000 level today.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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