Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,043 at 16 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,217 at 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
3. r = 78217.31 / 78042.8 − 1 = +0.2%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology