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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 16 May 2026, 08:23 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

That Martini Guy ₿

@MartiniGuyYT

In reply to · 16 May 2026, 07:28 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC up 37% in 3 months. Bears celebrating a 3% dip. 😂 Capitulation is closer than they think. 🟠 https://t.co/zVnTvkfKgI

@LLuciano_BTC The bulls are coming back 🐂

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,375 at 16 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,058 at 17 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 78058.18 / 78374.87 − 1 = -0.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time