Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 May 2026, 16:37 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 15 May 2026, 14:39 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: 85% chance Bitcoin hits $75,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/AKKypGpcen

$BTC 50D SMA is sitting around $75,000. Bitcoin quarterly VWAP is also around $75,000. IMO, this is a good zone for any bounceback. https://t.co/4fVg6tE6V0 https://t.co/dOFXRMSgOi

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,268 at 15 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,178 at 16 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 78177.84 / 79267.75 − 1 = -1.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC 50D SMA is sitting around $75,000.”
Confidence: 94%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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