Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,110 at 15 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,092 at 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 78091.58 / 79109.93 − 1 = -1.29%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.29% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology