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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 May 2026, 11:31 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Jelle

@CryptoJelleNL

@FLY_N_H1 The issue I'm highlighting is in BTC not even reclaiming the first main resistance level while the S&P shot straight to new all-time highs. If ES only retests the prev ATHs, BTC is likely back inside its Q1 range. Thats a very different structure to move forward from.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,618 at 15 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,048 at 16 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 78047.68 / 80617.67 − 1 = -3.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@FLY_N_H1 The issue I'm highlighting is in BTC not even reclaiming the first main resistance level while the S&P shot straight to new all-time highs.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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