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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 May 2026, 08:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH has almost dropped to the $2,250 level again. The key level is $2,250 and losing this will push Ethereum towards $2,150 and lower. https://t.co/VDziKOvZsD

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,257 at 15 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,192 at 16 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 2192.12 / 2256.94 − 1 = -2.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH has almost dropped to the $2,250 level again.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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AI interpretation

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