Published 14 May 2026, 23:04 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC
₿IRB
@crypto_birb
Important bear market update: 200-day BPRO has curled up by +1.3% in last 16 days. It's a promising (but early) reversal sign. I'm convinced 2027 is already a bull run as pre-election years are historically strongest - no other year comes even close. So after predicting the top precisely with public 60-day countdown before bitcoin crashed 50%, my only uncertainty is the next 4-6 months. And that's the only prediction horizon I'm making a data-backed bet on. To confirm new bull market - and I prefer to confirm rather than guess - I'm applying the same criteria which allowed me to confirm last bull run in January 2023. It was before BTC moved from $18k to $126k (7x) Confirmation is late by definition but I'd like to see the 200-day SMA flatten and follow what BPRO line did. That's what will change my long-term bias to the upside and confirm bear has ended. Has that happened yet? No. Is the 200BPRO inflection promising? Yes. We'll know in about 2 months from now. To be absolutely clear, I was born a bull. I HATE bear markets because the space gets absolutely depressive, irritating and gets the worst out of people. A new bull market will make me (and lots of my investments) happy. But more likely than not a few months of chop between $68k-$90k comes first. Thoughts? P.S. I'm hosting live trading $100k->$1M session tomorrow come see me at millionaire speedrun arena.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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