Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,954 at 14 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,110 at 15 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 79109.93 / 80954.08 − 1 = -2.3%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology