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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 14 May 2026, 09:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

THIS IS BADD: Bitcoin just broke the most important level in its entire history. 14 years of support. Gone. That line defined every single bull market. Separated expansion from total damage. Volatility exploding. Liquidity hunting lower. Weak hands getting destroyed. Ignoring this isn't conviction. It's denial.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,591 at 14 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,484 at 15 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 80484.27 / 79591.07 − 1 = +1.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin just broke the most important level in its entire history.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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