Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,783 at 13 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,434 at 14 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 81434.01 / 78783.05 − 1 = +3.4%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology