Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,788 at 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,954 at 14 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 80954.08 / 79788.39 − 1 = +1.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology