Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,173 at 13 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,744 at 14 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.
3. r = 79743.92 / 80172.52 − 1 = -0.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology