Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,316 at 13 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,266 at 14 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
3. r = 2265.62 / 2316.31 − 1 = -2.2%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology