Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 May 2026, 20:09 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:20 UTC

Gaijin

@Gaijin165

In reply to · 12 May 2026, 20:01 UTC · context given to the AI

$ETH ETF outflow of $17,000,000 yesterday. Fidelity sold $4,700,000 in Ethereum. https://t.co/rs9v39YA79

@cryptojack Normal clients outflow the buys pressure will come again

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,285 at 12 May 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,263 at 13 May 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 2262.85 / 2284.84 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@cryptojack Normal clients outflow the buys pressure will come again”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3