Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,298 at 12 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,783 at 13 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 78783.05 / 80298.11 − 1 = -1.9%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology