Prediction evidence

The government’s CPI measurement just came in at 3.8% This has been largely driven by higher energy prices, but the most important question is whether these increased levels will be sustainable or not? There are structural deflationary forces swallowing the US economy from tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence, and robotics. These are offsetting some, but not all, of the impact from higher energy prices. If energy prices have found a new equilibrium at these higher levels, inflation will be persistent. But if energy prices are higher only temporarily, then I would expect inflation to come back down quickly. Regardless of the government’s number, one thing is clear for investors: owning scarce, hard assets will be a winning strategy. Bitcoin, gold, real estate, and various other commodities. I used to joke about the “Crazy Uncle” portfolio of gold, guns, land, and bitcoin. I don’t think that will be a bad strategy going forward though.