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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 May 2026, 09:08 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC pumped above the $82,000 level before dropping below $81,000. Saylor's $STRC buying has started, so there's a decent chance of Bitcoin rallying towards the $84,000-$85,000 level. https://t.co/2AN3xkR6Ny

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,800 at 12 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,257 at 13 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 81256.6 / 80799.7 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC pumped above the $82,000 level before dropping below $81,000.”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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