Prediction evidence

Quoting · 7 May 2026, 18:37 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC For those wondering, yes, I’m still in my swing short. BTC is currently testing a major area: the previous highs before the breakdown to 60K. If this level holds, there’s a possibility we continue pushing higher. I still believe we eventually retrace and test the 75–76K region where I placed my scalp long limits, but risk management has to come first. Because of that, I’ve decided to derisk 50% of my short position at a loss. Not because I’ve lost confidence, but because protecting capital is more important than being right. As I mentioned previously, most of my swing shorts didn’t experience this much deviation. Looking back, I mentioned that I entered too early, and the smarter move would have been waiting for acceptance. So at this point, 50% of the short is closed, while I’m holding the remaining 50% targeting either sub-70K or my SSL at 84K. My invalidation level was only briefly missed. This current retrace has given me the opportunity to reduce exposure for just a -0.3R loss while still keeping part of the position open. Given the circumstances, I’m comfortable with that. Could derisking 50% end up being a mistake? Maybe. I still expect price to retrace below my entry. But I always have to remain open to the possibility that I’m wrong as well.