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Leaderboard / @KookCapitalLLC / 2053877764000764325:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 May 2026, 16:39 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 08:29 UTC

Ko

kook

@KookCapitalLLC

by now its quite clear the bottom is in on $btc we are going much, much higher from here https://t.co/B5Byus3dk7

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,552 at 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,968 at 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 79967.67 / 81551.99 − 1 = -1.94%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.94% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “by now its quite clear the bottom is in on $btc”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$81,552

Evaluation price

$79,968

Move

-1.94%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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