Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 11 May 2026, 14:36 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year https://t.co/enVa8JoSBO

What if Bitcoin is building another five-wave expansion? The structure is starting to resemble previous cycle behavior. Wave 4 pullback. RSI reset. Compression near support. If wave 5 begins from here, the next move could target the $140K region. https://t.co/v7WuGFjTnW https://t.co/g74Olod6gf

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,552 at 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,968 at 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 79967.67 / 81551.99 − 1 = -1.9%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “What if Bitcoin is building another five-wave expansion?”
Confidence: 87%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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