Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,423 at 11 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,298 at 12 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 80298.11 / 81422.95 − 1 = -1.4%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology