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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 May 2026, 10:54 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

WARNING: Ethereum Foundation unstaked $49,600,000 in ETH. Today. In February they staked $46,000,000. Bullish signal. Markets reacted positively. Today they unstaked $49,600,000. The opposite signal. With a bigger size. Actions speak louder than words. The Ethereum Foundation just spoke. Are you listening?

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,329 at 11 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,286 at 12 May 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 2285.64 / 2329.3 − 1 = -1.9%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Ethereum Foundation unstaked $49,600,000 in ETH.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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